Taiwan’s 2024 Elections

The Taiwanese Political Landscape

Taiwan is a self-ruled island with its own constitution, currency, and freely elected government. However, Beijing’s “One China” policy claims Taiwan as a renegade province of the Chinese state, wielding military and political pressure to force the island, as well as the global community, to accept its territorial claims. Beijing, which has prevented Taiwan from being recognized as an independent state, discourages formal diplomatic relations with the island-state and deters Taiwan’s participation in global institutions like the United Nations and World Health Organization. In recent years, Beijing has ramped up its rhetoric, asserting that China will not renounce the use of force to bring Taiwan to its fold, while claiming it prefers a more peaceful solution.[iii] This choice between peace and war is how the Chinese government framed Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election.[iv]

While Taiwan’s political landscape is not typically characterized as Left or Right, there are ideological and political differences between the two major parties.[v] Ahead of the recent election, the incumbent DPP promoted Taiwanese nationalism—based on a Taiwanese identity distinct from Chinese nationalism—and continued cultivating its relationship with the U.S. and the global community.[vi] The DPP is considered somewhat progressive, despite setting aside some of its social welfare promises to promote neoliberal economic growth. Founded in 1986, one year before martial law ended, the DPP emerged to challenge the prevailing political system and authoritarianism under the KMT.[vii] The party has traditionally embraced human rights advocacy and promoting Taiwanese identity, and includes LGBTQ rights, social welfare, and environmentalism in its platform.[viii]

Conversely, the right-wing, Chinese nationalist KMT makes socially conservative appeals to “traditional values,”[ix] including opposition to same-sex marriage, and supports closer ties with Taiwan’s powerful neighbor, China. The KMT’s official Chinese name, which translates to “China National People’s Party,”[x] signals the party’s ties to China and Chinese identity, which influence its current pro-China stance. However, the KMT and CCP were once adversaries and fought bitterly during the Chinese Civil War. After losing the war, the KMT retreated to Taiwan, believing they would one day defeat the Communist Party and “recover the mainland.”[xi] Meanwhile, they claimed to be the legitimate government of the Republic of China (ROC), which remains Taiwan’s official name, governing the island as a one-party state.[xii] After losing Taiwan’s second-ever election in 2000, the KMT has worked with the CCP to fight a new enemy-in-common: the DPP and Taiwanese nationalism.[xiii]

Taiwan’s political landscape can be broadly understood as two coalitions, the conservative “pan-blue” and the more liberal-left “pan-green.”  Historically, the KMT has headed the pan-blue group, leading smaller right-leaning parties that are traditionally pro-reunification. In contrast, the pan-green group of the DPP and affiliated parties has favored Taiwanese independence and distance from China.[xiv] However, in recent years, the KMT has proclaimed support for Taiwan’s ambiguous status quo—effectively independent, though not formally—with many in the party rejecting immediate unification with China.[xv] Likewise, the DPP has softened its stance on independence and vocalized maintaining the status quo. The TPP, a new political party founded in 2019, campaigned on the slogan, “Put blue and green aside, and people in the middle”[xvi] and criticized both parties without taking a clear side on historically significant electoral issues, such as cross-strait relations and energy policies.[xvii] Despite this, the TPP finds solid support among Taiwanese youth disenfranchised by low salaries and high housing prices.[xviii]

Taiwan’s Authoritarian Era

When the KMT first governed Taiwan following the end of Japanese colonial rule after World War II, locals[xix] initially welcomed the newcomers.[xx] But economic mismanagement and the use of armed force against civilians spurred Taiwanese uprisings against the government, and in response, the KMT implemented martial law in 1949.[xxi] Chiang Kai-shek, the KMT’s leader at the time, justified the violent repression as necessary to weed out Communist infiltrators and ward off a potential invasion by the CCP’s armed wing, the People’s Liberation Army.[xxii]

With the help of his son, Chiang Ching-kuo, whom Chiang appointed as the head of the secret police, the KMT used arbitrary arrest and torture to control the Taiwanese populace and maintain a brutal dictatorship.[xxiii] During the White Terror Period[xxiv] from 1949 to 1992 the government imposed these violent, repressive measures on thousands of suspected leftists, those they suspected to be sympathetic toward the CCP, and Taiwanese locals and indigenous peoples[xxv] who participated in previous uprisings or were accused of criticizing the government. The KMT’s secret police arrested, interrogated, charged, tried, imprisoned, and executed thousands of people during the White Terror Period.[xxvi]

Chiang’s authoritarian policies were relaxed somewhat when Chiang Ching-kuo became his father’s successor in 1975. The younger Chiang upgraded Taiwan’s infrastructure, including constructing the national highway, an international airport, and a nuclear power plant.[xxvii] Under his leadership, Taiwan experienced rapid economic development, which became known as the Taiwan Miracle.[xxviii] In the 1980s, the Taiwanese government began to invest in capital-intensive and knowledge-based industries.[xxix] This included providing nearly half the start-up capital for TSMC, now the largest contract manufacturer of semiconductor chips powering the world’s phones, laptops, cars, and fridges.[xxx]

The Beginning of Taiwanese Democracy

Chiang Ching-kuo understood that the U.S. and other developed nations would see “democratic Taiwan” in a better light than Communist China.[xxxi] He introduced democratic reforms toward the end of his life. To start, he chose a local Taiwanese, Lee Teng-hui, as his deputy. Chiang tolerated political opposition in government, which eventually led to the DPP’s formation. He also lifted martial law in 1987, ending a reign of terror that lasted 38 years.[xxxii] When he died in 1988, his deputy, Lee, succeeded him as Taiwan’s president. Unlike his predecessor, Lee had no connection to China and cultivated a more independent, international image for Taiwan.[xxxiii] In 1996, when Taiwan held its first direct presidential election, Lee ran as a KMT candidate was the first president elected by Taiwanese citizens, defeating the candidate from the opposition DPP.

Four years later, though, the DPP won its first election in 2000 when the Taiwanese elected Chen Shui-bian as president.[xxxiv] Chen asserted Taiwan’s sovereignty and promoted Taiwanese identity by supporting Hokkien language use, which had been severely suppressed during martial law.[xxxv] However, Chen’s presidency was mired in corruption and scandal, and after two terms, Taiwanese people elected another KMT government, this time, under Ma Ying-jeou. Ma negotiated economic policies that brought Taiwan closer to Beijing, with short-lived improvements to Taiwan’s economy.[xxxvi] As economic pressures increased on Taiwan’s people, Ma’s popularity declined—particularly as he pushed forward bilateral Taiwan-China policies like the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) to reduce export tariffs, and the unpopular Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement (CSSTA) to formalize existing business practices and lift trade restrictions.[xxxvii] Taiwanese students and civic groups worried that the agreement would benefit the wealthy and severely hurt the working class,[xxxviii] and also leave Taiwan vulnerable to Beijing’s political pressure.[xxxix] The Ma administration’s attempt to expedite the CSSTA’s review process led to public outcry and a dynamic protest movement: the Sunflower Movement.[xl]

Taiwanese Democracy in Action

The Sunflower Movement was a vital manifestation of Taiwanese democracy. On March 18, 2014, students and civic group members peacefully occupied the Legislative Yuan of Taiwan’s parliament to block the CSSTA’s ratification.[xli] The protesters initially sought a clause-by-clause review of the trade pact. However, they eventually demanded its rejection, along with passing legislation that allowed close monitoring of future agreements with China.[xlii] Five days after the occupation began, protesters entered the Executive Yuan, but within hours, hundreds of police officers were mobilized to evict them.[xliii]

Angered by this civil disobedience, the Ma administration ordered a crackdown that injured hundreds of people.[xliv] The authoritarian suppression of people’s voices was reminiscent of the White Terror era, prompting a backlash. As a result, the KMT’s trade agreements stalled; the Taiwanese legislature never ratified the CSSTA due to the students’ opposition and their impact on public opinion.[xlv] The Sunflower Movement birthed a new generation of Taiwanese activists opposing China’s increasing aggression and inspired other civil disobedience campaigns and democratic movements in Asia, including Hong Kong’s Umbrella Movement later that year.[xlvi]

The nonviolent student movement and public support for it ushered in a new government in 2016, returning to power the DPP under President Tsai. She famously said that only Taiwan’s people can decide their future[xlvii] and legalized same-sex marriage in 2019.[xlviii] Tsai’s vice president and successor Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, has said he would continue President Tsai’s path of proffering talks with China and maintaining peace and the status quo while also pledging to defend the island.[xlix]

Discrediting the Media as a Disinformation Tactic

Ten years after the Sunflower Movement energized Taiwanese civil society, the country’s democracy faces a significant and growing threat: disinformation. Through “verifiably false or misleading information that is created, presented and disseminated for economic gain or to intentionally deceive the public,” as the European Commission defines it, disinformation systematically creates fear and confusion, “and may cause public harm.” [l] The CCP’s multi-pronged disinformation strategy pollutes Taiwan’s information ecosystem.

One effective and inexpensive right-wing disinformation tactic is to undermine credible sources of information, such as established news media and journalists. In Taiwan, the KMT attacked publications and journalists perceived as critical of its policies. Among them was Reuters Senior Correspondent Yimou Lee, over his work on China’s attempts to meddle with Taiwan’s elections. Throughout late 2023, after reviewing security documents and interviewing anonymous sources, Lee reported on Chinese government attempts to influence Taiwan’s 2024 elections. These efforts included sponsoring discounted trips to China for hundreds of Taiwanese politicians,[li] engaging folk religious groups in rural Taiwan to manipulate political opinion in its favor,[lii] and asking a popular Taiwanese rock band, Mayday, to make pro-China comments.[liii]

China’s Taiwan Affairs Office and pro-Beijing media rebuked Lee’s journalism. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office decried the Mayday story as “fake news” and DPP-spread rumors.[liv] Pan-blue, pro-China Taiwanese media United Daily News (UDN) and China Times published criticisms that described Lee’s use of anonymous sources as “unverifiable content” [lv] and his work as a ploy to extend the DPP agenda.[lvi]China Times reported a KMT press conference’s claim that Lee’s reporting stirred up “fake national security” issues by using anonymous sources and that the DPP interfered with the elections through foreign media.[lvii] Though the pan-blue camp’s efforts failed to discredit Lee’s watchdog journalism, their schemes signal what’s to come if the KMT wins the presidency in a future election.

Harnessing Social Media to Spread Disinformation

The CCP repeatedly targets Taiwanese audiences on social media to manipulate Taiwan’s political conversation.[lviii] Before and during the 2024 election cycle, Chinese online influence operations disseminated videos and memes about Taiwanese political parties across Facebook, YouTube, and TikTok to undermine the DPP’s governance.[lix] Numerous China-affiliated “content farms” operate in Taiwan, producing massive amounts of low-quality news articles to collect money from page clicks and influence Taiwanese public opinion.[lx] Beijing’s strategy has proved fruitful. When people share information that confirms their existing biases with little regard for its veracity, disinformation spreads, distorting public discourse and undermining democratic decision-making.[lxi]

Disinformation spread through local news and social media often blows mundane issues out of proportion to create panic, fear, and confusion. In early 2023, Taiwanese news reported an egg shortage. The news went viral on social media, leading to panic buying and hoarding.[lxii] However, anti-disinformation researchers found an atypical pattern in online discussions of the egg shortage leading up to the election, suggesting a disinformation campaign about the causes of the shortage.[lxiii] One man’s photos of eggs that appeared to be tainted with black and green mold turned out to be doctored.[lxiv] An agricultural blogger said he received death threats for writing about the government’s egg-import program, later found to be a hoax orchestrated with the help of a KMT staffer.[lxv] The overblown egg-shortage controversy painted a narrative of DPP incompetence and chaos, leading some to believe the government couldn’t secure essential food items.

“U.S. Skepticism” as Disinformation

With Taiwan-U.S. relations growing stronger in recent years, China’s disinformation strategy has focused increasingly on spreading manipulative “U.S. Skepticism” narratives. According to Taiwan Information Environment Research Center (IORG), such narratives imply that U.S. support would be catastrophic for Taiwan by selectively wielding critiques of U.S. global power and actions to present the U.S. as a fake friend that will abandon, weaken, and eventually destroy Taiwan.[lxvi] Instead, these narratives invoke a shared language and ethnicity to suggest that Taiwan should depend on China, its real family, for support.[lxvii] Like other content meant to influence Taiwanese public opinion, the CCP plants U.S. skepticism in its official media and distributes it through content farms and social media.

China’s U.S. Skepticism strategy intensified after the Russia-Ukraine war began in 2022. Many people in Taiwan, watching a large and powerful country invade its smaller neighbor, have been concerned about their safety in case of a Chinese invasion. As IORG research confirms, the CCP circulated anti-U.S. narratives concerning the war to stoke fear and divide Taiwanese society.[lxviii] For instance, in reporting on President Biden saying that he would not send troops to Ukraine, China’s state-controlled China Taiwan Network wrote, “The United States will also abandon Taiwan,”[lxix] implying that the U.S. would not aid Taiwan during a cross-strait crisis.[lxx] The message was shared widely on social media, along with statements like “Ukraine today; Taiwan tomorrow,” and “The United States uses Taiwan as a pawn.”[lxxi] Through such information manipulation, China encourages mistrust of Taiwan’s democratic governance—and ultimately aims to absorb it.

Along with amplifying fears of war and destruction, the CCP fueled U.S. skepticism by accusing the DPP government of conspiring with the U.S. to “sell out [the] people of Taiwan.” TSMC, mentioned before as a supplier of high-end microchips, is considered the pride of Taiwan. In 2020, amid public discussion of the possibility of establishing a U.S.-based TSMC factory, a facility in Arizona was announced.[lxxii] As efforts to set up the new plant progressed, China’s Voice of the Strait published a June 2022 report arguing that the U.S.’s strategic goal is to “use Taiwan to contain China.”[lxxiii] With the cooperation of the DPP government, they alleged, requiring TSMC to set up factories in the U.S. is “the first step to hollowing out Taiwan.”[lxxiv]

While the CCP sowed distrust of the U.S. during Taiwan’s 2024 election cycle, the KMT took advantage of the resulting political confusion to advance its campaign for closer ties with China. For example, the 2024 KMT presidential candidate Hou Yu-Ih proposed renegotiating the cross-strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) and Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement (CSSTA), which stalled during Tsai Ing-wen’s administration. Hou’s push to revive trade policies that had been rejected by the Taiwanese public demonstrated the KMT’s unwillingness to listen to the people it supposedly serves, indicating an alarming authoritarian direction in its governance.

Taiwan’s 2024 Election Results—And What They Mean

On January 13, 2024, Taiwan held nationwide elections. Vice President William Lai of the DPP prevailed in the three-way presidential election and took office in May.[lxxv] Although the Chinese government framed Lai as a dangerous separatist, Taiwanese voters gave the DPP a third consecutive victory.[lxxvi] However, they also gave the KMT, which now controls 52 seats to the DPP’s 51, a narrow majority in the legislature.[lxxvii]

The 2024 election results are a warning from voters that maintaining power based on a cross-strait status quo is no longer enough.[lxxviii] They indicate that although Taiwanese voters favor the DPP’s cross-strait policy, they want social change within their borders. During its eight years in power, the DPP failed to convince voters that it could address domestic issues, such as low wages, unaffordable housing, and Taiwan’s non-nuclear energy security challenges.[lxxix] The party faces an uphill battle to govern without a legislative majority.

Clearly, the DPP’s presidential win will not safeguard Taiwan’s precarious democracy from the CCP and KMT’s disinformation campaigns. If the DPP fails to address urgent economic and environmental concerns, Taiwanese voters may very well be seduced by its opponents in the next election cycle. This is a terrifying prospect, especially in an era of rampant disinformation, as the KMT—and with it, the country—has not fully reconciled the right-wing authoritarian past that seeps into its present.

Though its political future is uncertain, Taiwan is not consigned to a gloomy fate. Recognizing that an informed and critical populace is a pillar of a democratic society, fact-checking and investigative organizations, such as Taiwan FactCheck Center[lxxx], the IORG[lxxxi], The Reporter[lxxxii], and Taiwan AI Labs[lxxxiii] are working hard to declutter Taiwan’s information ecosystem. It’s up to Taiwan’s citizens to follow their lead and take seriously the threat of disinformation to their hard-won democracy and its movements for social justice.